June 26, 2002

LINCOLN, Neb. - As wheat harvest begins, yields for Nebraska's No. 3 crop could be the worst in 50 years in drought stricken areas, a University of Nebraska agronomist said.

Drought conditions have left many fields with low yield potential, said Drew Lyon, dryland crops specialist at the NU's Panhandle Research and Extension Center in Scottsbluff. Hot, dry weather shortened wheat's grain filling period and amplified stresses from pests and diseases such as wheat streak mosaic and crown and root rot.

Yields in the central and southern Panhandle are projected to be less than 20 bushels per acre, Lyon said. With prices sitting below or around $3 per bushel and some fields yielding only 5 to 8 bushels per acre, many farmers may not be able to cover harvesting costs and will leave some fields unharvested, he said.

Poor yields don't seem to be significantly influencing market prices, which are well below the 20-year average. The 2002 wheat harvest season begins with a large global carryover supply, which may overshadow low yields and inhibit price improvements, said Paul Burgener, an Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources agricultural economics research analyst, also at Scottsbluff.

"We've seen high production levels worldwide," Burgener said. "When you get that much wheat out there, it just depresses prices. It makes for fairly difficult economic times."

While U.S. wheat exports remain fairly unchanged, ample production in major wheat-producing nations such as Australia, Canada and Russia have added competition and supply to the market, he said.

However, wheat prices are expected to stabilize or improve, said Lynn Lutgen, NU marketing specialist. "There's no reason to really see a big harvest-time drop in prices," he said. The market has maintained a fairly narrow basis, which is good news for wheat growers, Lutgen said. As futures prices increased, cash prices followed.

Adequate worldwide wheat supplies will prevent a large price increase, but drought's impact on other markets could reasonably raise wheat prices, Lutgen said. Market prices for soybeans and corn are suddenly beginning to respond to the drought with significant price jumps this week, Lutgen said.

"When all three crops are threatened with hot, dry weather, price changes in other crops will carry over to wheat," Lutgen said. "Because of that, farmers need to follow other markets and watch for pricing opportunities for wheat. When corn and soybean prices increase, wheat prices also increase."

Western Nebraska already has seen a 20-cent price increase for hard red winter wheat, Burgener said. But prices still aren't increasing as much as farmers would like.

Despite prices, alternatives are limited. Some fields may go uncut, but most growers will harvest unless yields are exceptionally low, said Robert Klein, cropping systems specialist at NU's West Central Research and Extension Center in North Platte.

Wheat may be too mature to retain much nutrient value as hay and too short to leave adequate crop residue if baled for straw. Residue already will be limited because dry conditions prevented wheat from achieving much height, Klein said. Baling or grazing livestock on unharvested fields further depletes what little residue is available.

"Farmers will have to do their best to maintain crop residue to protect against wind and water erosion and to benefit next year's crops," Klein said.

Wheat residue is important in Nebraska for corn, grain sorghum and other rotations, he said. The residue helps collect soil moisture and suppress weeds. Last year's wheat residue helps conserve moisture for crops this summer, Klein said.

As for wheat, it may be too late for moisture to improve yields in most fields.

"Rain could help some areas depending on how far along the wheat is," Klein said. Lower temperatures, below 85 degrees, also could increase yields for wheat still in the filling stage, but most wheat is currently maturing.

Some wheat already has been harvested. If hot, dry conditions continue, harvest in southern Nebraska will be in full swing this week, Klein said.

Harvest is expected to begin next week in the Panhandle, Lyon said.

"The farmers are really optimistic," Klein said. "Of course, you've got to be in the farming business. You just do the best you can given the situation."

06/26/02-SH

Bob Klein
Agronomy
Professor
(308) 696-6705

Drew Lyon - Ph.D.
Agronomy
Associate Professor
(308) 632-1266

Lynn H. Lutgen - Ph.D.
Agricultural Economics
Associate Professor
(402)472-3406

Paul A. Burgener
Agricultural Economics
Research Analyst
(308)632-1241

Sandi Alswager Karstens
IANR News and Photography
(402) 472-3030

Department: Agronomy & Horticulture