July 22, 2003

LINCOLN, Neb. — Rural Nebraskans are more pessimistic this year about both their individual well-being and their communities, according to the Nebraska Rural Poll.

Only 27 percent of respondents said they were better off than five years ago compared with 37 percent in 2002. The number saying they were worse off compared to five years ago climbed to 30 percent, up from 21 percent from last year. This marked the first time in the University of Nebraska poll's eight-year history that the "worse offs" outnumbered the "better offs."

"I thought we might see a downturn with the drought and economy but I didn't expect the dramatic shifts in some key measures," said John Allen, the NU Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources rural sociologist who heads the poll. The scientific survey was mailed in March to 6,500 randomly selected households in the 87 counties defined as rural at that time. This year's results are based on 3,087 responses.

"This data points to the fact that rural Nebraskans are facing some hardships and, overall, their lives are not getting better," he said.

Rural views about future well-being are especially worrisome, Allen said.

The proportion of rural Nebraskans that said they expect to be better off in 10 years dropped to 31 percent from 36 percent in 2002. Twenty-six percent said they expect to be worse off, up from 18 percent last year while 43 percent said they expect to be about the same, down from 46 percent a year earlier.

"Traditionally, Nebraskans have been pretty optimistic about the future," Allen said. "They've been through depressions, farm crises, drought and crop failures but they've always believed that down the road things will get better. It's been part of the culture."

Farmers and ranchers are more pessimistic about their current situation than people in other occupations. Only 19 percent of farmers and ranchers think they are better off than five years ago, compared with 44 percent of respondents in professional occupations. Nearly 60 percent of farmers and ranchers also said they were dissatisfied with their current income.

Such dissatisfaction bodes poorly for families who want to pass their farms or ranches to the younger generation.

"If the people running the farms and ranches can't see a future in agriculture, they're less likely to encourage their kids to return," Allen said.

Poll results point to the role education plays in people's feelings of empowerment, Allen said. The proportion of people without a high school diploma that agreed people are powerless to control their lives rose to 56 percent, up from 45 percent last year. Among people with four-year college degrees, only 18 percent agreed people are powerless. Overall, 55 percent of respondents disagreed that people are powerless, 33 percent agreed and 13 percent were undecided.

"If you believe you are powerless it's very difficult to mobilize people to start businesses, improve their communities and get involved in the political system," Allen said.

Also for the first time, the number of people who said their community changed for the worse in the past year topped the number saying it changed for the better, 25 percent to 22 percent, respectively. Continuing a trend of the past several years, more than 50 percent of respondents said their community stayed about the same in the past.

Town size makes a big difference in respondents' view of their community. While 28 percent of people living in or near communities of 10,000 or more said their community had improved in the last year, only 12 percent of residents in or near towns with fewer than 500 people agreed.

Despite economic concerns and a decline in optimism, most rural residents continue to agree that their communities are friendly, 74 percent; trusting, 63 percent; and supportive, 67 percent. These numbers have remained steady throughout the poll's history.

While there was an overall decline in several measures of personal well-being, satisfaction with social attributes and community services didn't change this year, said Becky Vogt, the poll's manager.

The poll found rural Nebraskans continue to be most satisfied with the social and spiritual aspects of their lives and least satisfied with financial security during retirement, current income and job opportunities.

"It looks like the social dimensions that rural Nebraskans cherish are in competition with individual economic realities," Allen said. "You can be happy with your family, community and friends, but at the end of the month, you still have bills to pay."

Overall, the number of people planning to move from their community increased slightly to 5 percent from 3 percent in 2002. However, 18 percent of 19- to 29-year-olds plan to move and 15 percent are uncertain.

"This data points to a brain drain. That's a fairly large cohort of young people planning or considering a move," Allen said.

Allen calls these poll results "a story of the times," not a prediction of the future.

One reason for conducting the poll is to help spot trends early so communities and government can focus attention to make changes where necessary, he said.

The poll is the largest annual survey of rural Nebraskans' perceptions on quality of life and policy issues. It provides a rural perspective to policy- and decision-makers. This year's response rate was 48 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

Complete results are available online at Nebraska Rural Poll .

The poll is conducted by the university's Center for Applied Rural Innovation with funding from the Partnership for Rural Nebraska and IANR's Cooperative Extension Division and Agricultural Research Division.

7/22/03-VM

Becky Vogt
Center for Applied Rural Innovation
Nebraska Rural Poll Project Manager
(402) 329-4821

John C. Allen - Ph.D.
Center for Applied Rural Innovation
Director
(402) 472-1772

Vicki Miller
Research Communications Coordinator
(402) 472-3813

Department: Center for Applied Rural Innovation