by Ryan Evans | Agricultural Economics
Lincoln, Neb. —Nebraska’s farm income is projected near $7.8 billion in 2023, according to a new report from the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, produced in conjunction with the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
The report, “Fall 2023 Nebraska Farm Income Outlook,” indicates that Nebraska’s stronger 2023 farm income projection is driven largely by higher livestock prices and recovery in ending year inventories and values.
The last report, published in March, projected 2023 farm income in the state at $7.3 billion, up from a projected $7.1 billion in 2022.
“Crop receipts fell in 2023 due to lower prices, in spite of a rebound in production, while livestock receipts grew on much higher cattle prices in 2023, despite reduced inventories and marketings,” the report said. “Higher production expenses year after year are increasingly challenging profit margins, but for now, strong farm income prospects for 2023 show the strength of the agricultural sector in the state.”
Other highlights from the report include:
- Drought persisted and shifted in Nebraska in 2023 but isn’t projected to have had as big of an effect statewide in 2023 compared to 2022. Yield and production prospects recover modestly in 2023 but not enough to offset lower commodity prices, reducing 2023 crop receipts by nearly 14%, back to a level on par with 2021.
- Despite tighter 2023 inventories, cattle and calf receipts will rise by $2.44 billion. This is largely driven by higher prices as total marketings on a liveweight basis decline nearly 4% from 2022. Prices are projected to peak in 2025 and liveweight basis marketings to increase in 2024 onward.
- Total production expenses are expected to increase by 7.6% in 2023, in comparison to double-digit increases in 2021 and 2022. Despite decreases in fertilizer and fuel expenses, several other expense categories continue to climb, including purchased livestock, taxes, capital consumption, labor, rent, and interest.
The fall 2023 farm income outlook is co-published by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Center for Agricultural Profitability and RaFF at the University of Missouri, which provides objective policy analysis and informs decision-makers on issues affecting farm and rural finances. The center collaborates with a number of states to develop farm income projections with local expertise.
“Insights developed through our partnership with the Center for Agricultural Profitability help us better understand the uniqueness of farm income factors regionally” RaFF interim director Scott Brown said. “State-level analyses like the Nebraska farm income report can help producers, policymakers and stakeholders alike be equipped with information to make sound decisions that impact agriculture.”
The full report and data tables can be found on the Center for Agricultural Profitability’s website, https://cap.unl.edu/farm-income. A webinar covering the report will be held at noon Central time on Oct. 12. Registration is available on the report’s webpage.